Export Growth to Slow as Developed-World Consumers Shift Spending Back to Services and Away from Made-In-China Goods

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China’s economy faces new challenges as its developed-world export markets emerge from the pandemic. After controlling the pandemic’s spread in the spring of 2020, China reopened its economy earlier and with fewer restrictions than other large economies. Real GDP plunged 8.7% in quarterly seasonally-adjusted terms in the first quarter of 2020 (not annualized), bounced back to its pre-crisis level in the second quarter of that year, and continued to grow well above trend through the end of 2020. But the expansion lost momentum in 2021, with 

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