Fed on Hold in June, but Likely to Edge Toward a Taper Discussion; ECB Likewise on Hold Despite Improving Data

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The consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6% in May vs 0.5% expected and 0.8% in April. In year-over-year terms, CPI inflation accelerated to 5.0% in May from 4.2% in April and was the highest since August 2008. But since consumer prices fell last April and May as the economy entered free-fall, the year-over-year comparison is deceptive; consumer prices in May were up 3.1% from February 2020. Energy prices were unchanged in May and up 28.5% from a year earlier, but up a much smaller 7.3% from February 2020. Food prices in May rose 0.4% on the month, rose 2.2% on the year, and were up 4.7% from February 2020; they started rising last spring as panicked Americans mobbed supermarkets.

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