Modeling the Onset of Symptoms of COVID-19

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The current pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has undergone an observed exponential increase of cases that has overrun hospitals across the world. Many people have mild forms of the disease and are advised not to go to the hospital or to seek a diagnostic test because they can recover at home. A large number of others are asymptomatic. Infected individuals are highly contagious and can transmit the disease even if they are asymptomatic, and this fact furthers the need to isolate and test often. In addition, COVID-19 is two to three times more contagious than influenza. Due to these characteristics, outbreaks of COVID-19 occur in clusters. Identifying COVID-19 early could reduce the number and size of clusters, but early symptoms are not well-defined. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the USA and the World Health Organization (WHO) currently advise the public to call their doctor if they believe they have been exposed to COVID-19 or exhibit fever and cough. However, fever and cough are associated with other respiratory diseases such as influenza.

 

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