Predicting the future SARS-COV-2 reproductive rate

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The Sars-CoV-2 outbreak started initially in Wuhan and spread rapidly around the world. It was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation in March 2020. As of the 12th of July 2020, there have been over 12,000,000 confirmed cases and 500,000 deaths, though the true number of cases is likely to be much higher due to the current limitations of testing methods. A better indication of the true infection rate can be gleaned from antibody prevalence studies in national sample populations, which may place the cumulative incidence of infection at greater than 10 times higher than the confirmed infection rate, typically associated with an infection fatality rate of between 0.5% and 1%.

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